If you haven’t read Part 1 of Purchasing An Apartment In New York City, I recommend doing so. In Part 1, I addressed Preparation. Understanding the market, financial requirements to purchase (from both a down payment and debt-to-income perspective), as well as your strengths and weaknesses as a buyer are essential to “winning” an apartment in NYC – and your game plan will position you to seize the opportunity when it arises.
“To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” ― Sun Tzu
Ok, so maybe using a quote from the author of The Art of War is a bit harsh. Labeling our counterpart as “Thy Enemy” at the beginning of a negotiation sets up an adversarial relationship rather than one in which we can create and claim more value. The point is, instead of blindly deploying our strategy – or making assumptions – we must gather intelligence about our negotiation counterpart’s (a.k.a, the Seller) strategy, situation, strengths, weaknesses, goals, wants, and needs. All of this intel will help us understand the “Power Balance”, identify and rank the seller’s Value Elements so we can identify possible exchanges, and employ Integrative Negotiation techniques to create value.
We also want to understand the style of negotiator we are dealing with on the other side of the table. Knowing whether they are Collaborative, Competitive, or Compliant will help us devise our negotiation strategy and anticipate the tactics and approaches they might use throughout the negotiation.
Finally, we want to understand how the market factors will affect the Power Balance and behavior of our counterpart. Question – Is it a Sellers’ Market, Buyers’ Market, or Balanced Market at the time of your offer?
For instance, if we are in a Seller’ Market, there may be a higher level of competition from qualified, active buyers. Multiple bids are likely and the seller will probably have the edge on overall Power Balance. It doesn’t mean other sources of power are not valuable or relevant, but considerations such as financial hardship, a growing family or a sudden move on the part of the seller – which often create a negotiation opportunity for the buyer – may be less of a factor. In this case, the other bidders become your “competition”, and you are gathering information about the seller in an effort to separate yourself from “the pack”, make your offer unique, and satisfy the interest of the seller in a way the others can’t. And, although emotional factors can and will often come into play in this situation, pay close attention to one crucial variable and who holds it – Risk. If you are willing to take risk off the seller’s “plate”, your value proposition may increase drastically. This can come in the form of a higher down payment, a quicker close, the removal of financing contingencies, etc. Security is valuable.
To continue with our “Seller’s Market” example and offering deal security and surety to the seller, I wanted to share this point. I am sometimes asked by buyers, “Why does the seller care about my down payment amount? After all, aren’t they getting their money at the closing table, whether it comes from my pocket or from the bank?” Yes, that is correct…sort of. At the closing table the seller will be made whole, whether 80% of the purchase price comes from the bank and 20% comes from the buyer, or 100% comes from the buyer and there is no bank involved in the transaction. That said, what happens at the closing table is not the seller’s concern – it is the events leading up to the closing – and the subsequent negotiations, issues, setbacks, etc. – that determine why the seller considers a larger down payment attractive and valuable.
Meet me back here for the conclusion of Understanding Your Opponent. In the next post I will further tackle risk mitigation by bringing the term Mortgage Contingency into the conversation.
Studies show that children have natural collaborative negotiation skills from a very young age. Unfortunately, those skills tend to diminish as we “grow up” and lose our edge. Watch my video for 5 Negotiation Tips we can relearn from children and use to improve our outcomes in our daily negotiations.
Studies show that children have natural collaborative negotiation skills from a very young age. Unfortunately, those skills tend to diminish as we “grow up” and lose our edge. Watch my video for 5 Negotiation Tips we can relearn from children and use to improve our outcomes in our daily negotiations.
I recently had a good friend ask if it was OK to “pick my brain” about buying an apartment in NYC. He was concerned that he was wasting my time, and didn’t want to take too much of my morning. I told him, regardless of whether you purchase in two months or two years, reaching out to me was precisely the right first step on his journey to purchase a new home. Stories of evil co-op boards, the next great neighborhood and hidden fees often distract buyers from what is most important in the initial stages – preparation.
The truth is, purchasing a co-op or condo in NYC is akin to playing the biggest game of the year, in a physically and mentally exhausting sport, at a very high level. The competition is stiff and, no matter how good you are, the opposing players on the “field” are often stronger, faster and smarter than you are – or at least it appears that way. Now, in the sport of real estate, it typically isn’t your ability to bench 400 lbs., run a 100-meter dash or read a defense that determines your success (although, the negotiation phase often feels like it). In real estate, stronger, faster and smarter comes in the form of down payment and DTI (stronger), decision-making, flexibility on the pace of the transaction and closing terms (faster), and experience, risk calculation and ability to research the market, seller, etc. (smarter).
For the average buyer in a market with low inventory, high cash bidders, multiple offers, foreign investors, winning in the game of real estate feels impossible. It conjures up famous unlikely victories like the Miracle on Ice, Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson, or a Jets win on Sunday. Whether winning means purchasing a home you love, exiting the rental maze in search of something more secure and long-term, or just increasing your portfolio with a sound investment, it seems impossible to emerge victorious – let alone worth the physical, mental and emotional toll to even get in the game. So, how does the underdog win?! The answer isn’t easy, but it is simple – Preparation.
Legendary Notre Dame Coach, Lou Holtz (as a Minnesotan, it is my duty to say he is known to us as the Legendary Minnesota Gophers Coach), famously said, “Preparation is everything.” As a 145 lb. high school football player, I needed to believe that. And, as a coach to buyers hoping to someday own a co-op or condo, I still believe that today.
“Success is where preparation and opportunity meet.” –Bobby Unser
The reality is that some buyers I speak to are not ready to buy an apartment today – and that is absolutely OK. I welcome that conversation and applaud them for their desire to learn and prepare. They are conditioning, practicing, studying and strategizing in order to give themselves the best possible chance to beat the competition when opportunity arises. They are the buyers who WILL be ready to win when the time is right.
Don’t let this crazy market dissuade you from pursuing your goal, but don’t assume you know what it takes to win. Prepare. Speak to someone you trust who doesn’t see you as a dollar sign – rather a relationship. The truth may surprise you, may disappoint you (albeit temporarily!), may encourage you or motivate you. Either way, it is the truth that you need.
I often hear this statement from my coaching clients often, “Eirik, my client is irrational and unreasonable. I can’t force my client to do what I want. I don’t control their behavior.” To that I say, “You’re absolutely right. You cannot control your client — and you certainly can’t control the other side — but you can INFLUENCE them. You can PERSUADE them.” But, in order to influence or persuade anyone you have to be able to CONTROL yourself. As William Ury says, Go to the Balcony!
When the other person says no, takes a stand, or takes an aggressive position, we often respond with our own stand (positional bargaining). We dig in, fight back with a counter-attack, or we just shut down or give in. Instead of going with your knee-jerk, emotional reaction, follow Ury’s advice and “go to the balcony”. Suspend your reaction and give yourself a moment to strategize and plan an appropriate response by looking at the situation from a different vantage point. One where you are not “on the stage”, in the middle of the action, but above it with a view of where everyone is standing.
Going to the balcony will allow you to focus on interests, needs, and wants, rather than positions or stands.
Homeowners live in the monthly payments, not the purchase price.
Mortgage interest rates are undoubtedly and understandably a large consideration when it comes to purchasing a new home. Over the past several years we have experienced historically low mortgage interest rates as the U.S. economy slowly recovered from the 2008 financial crisis. In fact, since October 2011 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been below 4% for the most part, a far cry from October of 1981 when rates were a whopping 17%.
That said, despite whether rates are relatively low or high, when interest rates rise buyers feel they are paying more for their home. Often buyers respond to a 1/4 or 1/2 point increase in interest rates by reducing their price point, or by putting the purchase on hold altogether in hopes that rates will fall in the future.
Want my advice? Before we drastically change course, or decide to continue renting for another year or two, let’s calculate how that increase actually affects our purchase in real dollars to make sure we make the best and most rational decision possible. We will work it out together…
For the purposes of this exercise, we will use the current conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate of 4.125% and compare it to the average rate from this time last year which was about 3.625% – a difference of 1/2 or .5 of a point. So, how does that .5 change in mortgage interest rate impact us, and how can we put it into terms which will help us with our rent vs. buy calculation? Since there will be a true financial cost to a higher rate, it’s best to use dollars rather than decimals by calculating our exact monthly mortgage payment (which consists of both principle and interest, also known as “P & I”) for both rates.
For you math fans out there, the equation to figure out your monthly payments looks like this:
M = L[c (1 + c)n] / [(1+c)n – 1]
Unfortunately, most of you are NOT math fans and would rather not try to figure out what L represents, let alone 1+c and n-1, which is why many of us end the exercise here. Well, I have great news for all you arithmophobes out there! There is a tool created by your math-loving buddies called a “mortgage amortization factor chart“, and it may help stop your head from spinning with painful memories of brackets, balancing equations and high school Calculus.
The mortgage amortization factor chart does most of the heavy lifting for us by charting exactly what our monthly mortgage payment will be per $1000 borrowed, for several different mortgage terms. The first row (horizontal) is the mortgage term, and the first column (vertical) is the mortgage interest rate. Simply scroll down the “Rate” column until you find your rate, then follow that row right to the correct mortgage term (see mortgage amortization factor table below). For example, the mortgage amortization factor for a 3.625% interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 4.56. How does that translate into dollars? …EASY! The table shows us that for every $1000 you borrow, you will pay $4.56 per month for 30 years (or until you sell the apartment or refinance your loan – both of which are far more likely than living out the entire term of the loan in that apartment).
Of course, calculating our mortgage payment in $1000 increments doesn’t make a lot of sense unless we are buying property in Iowa in the 1830s. Therefore, I like to use $100,000 increments which (thankfully) is an easy change to make. All we have to do is move the decimal point to the right two places – from $4.5600 to $456.00. So, each $100,000 I borrow will cost me $456 per month for 30 years.
Now that we have discovered a quick and easy way to calculate our monthly mortgage payment courtesy of those who like math, let’s figure out how the change in rate will affect us in real dollars by comparing our rates of 3.625% and 4.125% – a difference of 1/2 of a point or .5%. Using our mortgage factor table we know the following:
3.625% interest rate = $4.56 per $1000 borrowed
4.125% interest rate = $4.85 per $1000 borrowed
The difference between the two mortgage factors is .29 (4.85 – 4.56 = .29). Move the decimal over two spots and you get 29. So, for every $100,000 you borrow you are paying an extra $29 per month for you monthly mortgage payment. If you are purchasing a $1,000,000 apartment and plan to finance 80% of the purchase ($800,000) you will pay an additional $232/month (8 x 29 = 232). Now, that is certainly not insignificant, but let’s try to add some perspective when it comes to the overall deal, and why a 1/2 of a point jump in rates – or even 1% jump – should not necessarily dissuade you from purchasing an apartment. Here are four points to consider:
As I mentioned, $232 is not an insignificant amount – especially on a monthly basis. That is nearly $2800/year after all. However, keep in mind that the overall mortgage payment on a loan of $800,000 at a 3.625% interest rate is $3648/month (456 x 8 = 3,648). Add a hypothetical (but very “reasonable”) maintenance payment of $1500/month and our total monthly (pre-tax) carrying cost figure is $5,148/month. Suddenly $232 (4.5% of the total monthly carrying costs) seems a little less significant in the overall picture.
One of the biggest benefits of owning rather than renting is the tax deductibility of your monthly carrying costs, including the interest component of your mortgage payment. Although the relationship between principle and interest changes as you pay off the loan (see mortgage payment graph), for the first several years of the loan you will benefit from a high level of tax deductibility (75%-ish). So, how long you tend to own the apartment should be a large part of your calculation. Do do quick math on how the tax deductiblity will change the $232 number, multiply 232 x 12 ($2784) x 75% (or .75) = $2,088. $2.088 of that yearly 1/2 addition in rate in our example is tax deductible. Assuming a 30% tax bracket, you will save $626 each year or $52/month. So, $232/month is actually about $180/month!
It is important to ask yourself how long you realistically plan to own the apartment. Do you see yourself selling in 5 years? 10? Let’s take a conservative approach and assume you will hold the apartment for 15 years. As we established above, the after-tax monthly burden of an extra .5% in interest rate on an $800,000 mortgage is roughly $180/month. Therefore, the “cost” of that rate increase over the 15 years of ownership is $32,400 ((180 x 12) x 15). That’s just over 3% of the entire purchase price and doesn’t begin to take into consideration the potential appreciation of the property over the next 15 years.
We don’t live or purchase “in a vacuum”. If you are going to live in NYC – and don’t have the benefit of rent control or a wealthy family member – you are destined to either rent an apartment or own one. So, despite the fact that rates are higher than they were last year and last month, they are still at historic lows. The “rent vs. buy” calculation still favors buying if you have a) the down payment and post-closing reserves necessary to purchase, b) have the time to complete a purchase without becoming homeless and confused and c) plan to hold the property for more than just a few years (to allow for appreciation and mitigate the frictional costs of purchasing and selling (closing costs, etc.)).
At the end of the day, whatever you decide to do in response to increasing rates, do so with a clear understanding of what it mean in terms of dollars, not decimals. It will help you put the rate increase into perspective and allow you to make a rational decision, not a rash one.
My name is Eirik Davey-Gislason and I work in real estate in New York City. This blog is an opportunity for me to educate everyone who has a horror story or is on the verge of one. By sharing, preparing and advising my audience on what to expect, what is normal, what is right, and what is wrong, I hope to do my part to expose the wrong-doers and shape the future of this dysfunctional thing we call NYC Real Estate.